John Edwards has leapfrogged over his rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and leads the Democratic field in Iowa, according to the latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll. In the Republican caucus race, Mike Huckabee continues to hold a narrow lead over Mitt Romney.
The race among the three top Democrats is extremely close, with the potential for any of them to finish first – or third.
Edwards leads with 30 percent in a poll of Democratic voters who said they intend to participate in the Jan. 3 presidential caucuses, followed by Clinton with 26 percent and Obama with 24 percent. When the sample was narrowed to the most likely caucus-goers, based on several questions, Obama leads Edwards by less than a percentage point with 27 percent, with Clinton in third place at 24 percent.
Second Choices of voters for Candidates other than Edwards, Obama, or Clinton:
John Edwards 42.3%
Barack Obama 29.4%
Hillary Clinton 28.2%
This poll should be taken with a grain of salt as it is the first poll of Iowa by this organization. Also, the "highly likely voters" show a tie between Obama and Edwards at 26%. However, Edwards leads both Obama and Clinton in second choices.
This poll gives credence to what people have already seen happening in Iowa since the Des Moines Register Debate.
ABC News' Raelyn Johnson reports: As his eight day bus tour through Iowa winds down, John Edwards is starting to bring audiences to their feet when he talks about America rising. "Every time we speak up for 47 million people who have no health care coverage, America rises," Edwards says. "Every time we speak up for 35 million of our own people who went hungry last year, America rises. Every time we speak up for 200,000 veterans who were homeless and sleeping under bridges, America rises."
It is a newly injected message that Edwards has been preaching to larger crowds than he's previously attracted. It is met by applause and, at times, standing ovations.
"That rising is going to begin right here in Iowa on Jan. 3," Edwards told caucus goers Sunday at a town hall in Colfax, Iowa. With both candidates and caucus-goers focused on a cold night in January, Edwards pointed in the direction of the media gathered in the back of the room, predicting, "They all think they know what's going to happen, they're dissecting the polls. ... Wait 'til they see what's coming."
Having poured many of his resources into Iowa, Edwards acknowledges a win there could help him capitalize on victories moving out of the first-in-the-nation-caucus state. However, following the event, Edwards shot down the theory that he was a one-state candidate, telling reporters the characterization was "dead wrong."
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John Edwards has been traveling around the state of Iowa in the "Main Street Express". Including with Kevin Bacon and Tim Robbins.
The two candidates both spoke at Mason City on Saturday night, and experienced a reversal in roles, with Edwards packing a huge hall that was so crowded that the press left their risers and went into the balcony to shoot the event. Obama also drew a sizeable number of people, around 450, but in a comparison of press reports by NBC reporters, it lacked the frenzied enthusiasm that greeted Edwards.
Edwards said he hopes Culver's backing will help him the same way. "It's a big boost, and I'm proud to have her," he said. "She cares about children, families, battered women — a lot of the issues I care deeply about."
Culver, who like Edwards is an attorney, said she met him at a conference in 2001 and was immediately impressed by his intellect and accomplishments as a trial lawyer and as a U.S. senator from North Carolina. She said she agrees with his plans to fight poverty and to reform health care, and she thinks he offers Democrats the best chance to take back the White House.
"I think John is a winner. He's electable," she said. "He's been tested. He's been on the national ticket before. The national polls show him beating all Republicans in the general elections. He inspires me. I think he inspires other Iowans, and I think he can really rally Americans in the fall."
People have been underestimating the strength of Edwards' support. Quite simply almost every Edwards supporter that I spoke with told me that they were with him in 04. Those people are simply rock solid. Edwards' numbers (averaging 23 on Real Clear Politics) are probably his absolute floor from which he can only grow.
I was amazed by how soft the Obama support is. I knocked on doors that had an Obama yard sign and met people that are still not sure whether they will caucus for Obama or Edwards. I was amazed by how old the Clinton support was and consequently how vulnerable they are to bad weather.
The number of truly undecided Iowa Democrats who will definitely caucus but are still gathering information and making up their minds is huge. In an election that is this close the way those undecideds break in the last week is likely to make one of the three candidates a big winner and another a big loser.
I spoke to rural organizers who went through the Edwards surge in 04 and swear the exact same thing is happening now - only he is starting with the floor of 23 percent. His events are filling up with people that have still not made up their mind and they are liking what they are seeing.
So how did the canvas go? First off, everyone was pretty polite. Most people appreciated that I was out walking in the cold for a good cause, even if they weren't 100% behind Edwards. In my own unscientific survey, I didn't see much of a surge for Obama - most people I talked to were either for Edwards or Clinton. I was slightly surprised by this, as I had seen in other Iowa canvasses much more support for Obama, both visible and verbal. The only candidates mentioned were Edwards, Clinton, and Obama, other than one couple who were for Huckabee. Back at the office, they explained to me that it wasn't strange to find a few Republicans, as many Republicans registered as Democrats in order to vote in local elections, which the GOP often didn't contest...
By contrast, Edwards and his people never quit, no matter how bleak things got in recent months. On Monday, he picked up Iowa first lady Mari Culver's endorsement. And he still shows enough strength in rural Iowa that Obama is devoting considerable time to those areas these days in an effort to take some of the anti-Hillary vote from Edwards.
Proof of Edwards' uptick and Obama's jitters about him came Monday in Spencer, when Obama told a crowd: "Senator Edwards, who is a good guy, he's been talking a lot about 'I'm going to fight the lobbyists and the special interests in Washington.' Well, the question you have to ask is: Were you fighting for (citizens) when you were in the Senate?"
