The fighting going on between the Clinton and Obama campaigns is getting hot. With John Edwards running a very positive campaign in Iowa, you would think he was the front runner... wait a minute... maybe he is.
"some top campaign rivals still think Edwards would win Iowa, were the caucuses held today"
This would explain the extreme nature of the fighting between Obama and Clinton. They are battling for second place. Or much more accurately, they are battling to not be third, which would be a major blow to either campaign. Not that they wouldn't love to finish first, but that doesn't seem to be their strategy.
In 2004, the model for how the final Iowa result came about was that the two front-runners went at it, thus creating a space for a third (and fourth) guy to come up through the middle. So, I wonder, now that Clinton and Obama are going at it, why don't people expect this will play out once again to Edwards's benefit? One reason I've heard is that the Clinton/Obama fisticuffs don't come close to the hurt Gephardt put on Dean, but I'm not sure if that's the whole answer. Whatever the reason is, "Edwards wins" predictions seem to be entirely based on polling and organization judgments, while thoughts on the result of the Clinton/Obama battle seems to be leading to another prediction entirely.
I agree with Todd Beeton that people are analyzing the Obama v Clinton fights only in the context of "the winner of the fight will get first in Iowa." However, based on the people making predictions in Iowa and even in the other campaigns, they believe that Edwards has the edge.
If the Democratic caucuses were held tonight, this is how we think they would end:
John Edwards -- Edwards started about a year ago with the best organization in Iowa, and most of the foundation he built here is still in place. Although concerns persist that his sharpening rhetoric may be alienating a few of his earliest supporters, his solid performance at the Jefferson Jackson dinner, his endorsement from Caucus 4 Priorities (and the potential 10,000 caucus-goers it could bring him), and his ongoing commitment to retail politicking keep him in the top spot -- for now.
...deputy campaign manager Jonathan Prince said that the Edwards campaign has trained at least two precinct captains in more than 87 percent of caucus precincts statewide.
Generally, campaigns don't release this kind of info, but in Edwards's case, it reinforces the case made by rival campaigns privately: if the caucuses were held tonight, based on organization alone, Edwards would probably win.
...
Battle for Second Place I think this shows that the Clinton v Obama fight is actually an artifact of trying to not be third. Each campaign has a strategy for how to combat an Edwards Iowa win in case they win the fight and get second place.
Clinton's Second Place Strategy In order to combat an Edwards Iowa win, the Clinton campaign is going with a strategy of devaluing the Iowa caucus by saying that it doesn't matter. The Clinton campaign is also building up Michigan and Florida even though their delegates won't count and many candidates, like Edwards and Obama, aren't even on the ballot.
Obama's Second Place Strategy The Obama campaign instead is combating an Edwards Iowa win by pushing the money argument. They are saying that we must beat Clinton at all costs and therefore Edwards supporters must give in to the might of Obama's wallet. A weakness in Obama supporters' plan is exposed when it is pointed out Edwards doesn't need to push Obama supporters to abandon Obama in order to beat Clinton in Iowa.
Edwards' First Place Strategy John Edwards is battling for first place in Iowa. While some may contend that this is because he needs first place, I contend that it is simply the way that Edwards has done everything in this campaign. From day one, even Kos had complimented Edwards for being the only candidate not scared to take risks. His first place strategy goes along with his campaign's constant emphasis on being passionate, strong, and progressive.
The daily rhetorical sparring between Obama and Clinton has only made the Edwards campaign more confident that the best tactic to distinguish its candidate is to rise above the intraparty bout...
The media focus on the two leaders, despite polls indicating Iowa remains a three-way race, has also led the Edwards campaign to believe that it is now vital to offer a positive message to encourage voters not only to vote against Obama and Clinton but to vote for Edwards.
...
Ironically, the Edwards campaign now welcomes a characterization of the contest it has long protested — as a two-person race — in order to add more momentum to a possible win.
"Frankly, the more everybody talks about how the race is between Obama and Clinton, the better it is for us," Trippi said. "We intend to upset that. And if we do, it’s more powerful momentum if we beat these two giants who have spent millions more on Iowa television."
I think this is his best TV ad yet because he really connects with the viewer. He seems cool yet also presidential and gets his moral test rhetoric across without its seeming like an angry tirade or a doctoral thesis, which is how it often comes off to me. Quizzically, most of Edwards's previous ads have consisted of clips from speeches anyone viewing the ad on TV could see in person on any given night if they were so inclined. This ad presents a new Edwards, still tough, still a fighter, but with an extra level of accessibility, which is key.
I've been friends with John for many years. Like me, John grew up in rural America, and he hasn't forgotten where he's come from.
I've seen firsthand his commitment to standing up for hard-working families. From the court room to the Senate floor to the campaign trail, John has spent his life taking on powerful interests on behalf of America's families. And that's exactly what he'll do in the White House.
Throughout this campaign, on issue after issue, John has proposed bold ideas to end the power of special interests in Washington and restore our government to the American people.
John will start by ending the war in Iraq. He'll take on the drug and insurance companies and guarantee quality, affordable health care to all Americans. He'll fight to end poverty and revitalize rural communities. Above all, John will stand on the side of hard-working American families.
John not only has the most progressive and far-reaching ideas, but he's also the best Democratic candidate to lead us to victory in 2008.
...UNITE HERE also says it will allow its Chicago and Midwest regional board to support members who will campaign for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in Iowa.
The affiliate will commit staff, volunteers and financial resources to Edwards' campaign in Iowa immediately...
UPDATE: Edwards continues rise in NH, is at highest point yet in NH:
http://unionleader.com/... Clinton 37
Obama 23
Edwards 18
